In today’s global trade environment, unpredictability has become the new norm. With shifting tariffs, trade agreements in flux, and geopolitical tensions influencing supply chains, Inventory Planners are being asked to manage complexity at a level we haven’t seen in years. While no one can fully predict how these changes will unfold, there are practical steps Planners can take to steer their organizations through this uncertainty.
Slow Down and Think Strategically
Tariff policy changes—whether sudden or anticipated—can disrupt supply chains and skew product costs overnight. Reacting hastily may lead to over- or under-ordering, cash flow problems, or misalignment between supply and demand. Take a breath before reforecasting your entire assortment. Focus on categories most affected by tariffs and reassess only where it makes sense.
Stay alert to macroeconomic signals, but also stay grounded in your own business realities. Will retailers delay or cancel orders in response to increased costs? Are consumers responding to price hikes with demand shifts? Strategic patience is not inaction—it’s thoughtful planning.
Gather and Leverage Information
This is the time to sharpen your data gathering. Document everything from cost changes to missed sales, and pay special attention to what’s driving demand. Is a spike in a product line due to genuine consumption, or is it due to customers stocking up before anticipated price increases?
Geographical insights are also important. If tariffs impact some supplier regions more than others, you may see variance in availability, cost, and lead times by location. Use this data to predict and prepare for ripple effects across your network.
Reassess Your Product Assortment
With tariffs making some imports more expensive—or even temporarily unavailable—brand loyalty may take a backseat to availability and price. Consumers will adapt, and so must your assortment strategy.
Ask yourself:
- Are alternative suppliers or substitute products available?
- Can you promote excess inventory as substitutes for tariff-affected SKUs?
- Can you renegotiate terms with suppliers in un-tariffed regions?
Also consider a risk-based assortment strategy: categorize your products by exposure to tariff risk (low/medium/high), and use that framework to balance your inventory and hedge against supply shocks.
Scenario Planning Is a Must
If you’ve relied on historical sales curves to forecast, you may find them unreliable now. Trade disruptions don’t follow neat seasonal patterns. Tariff announcements can cause temporary demand surges, followed by abrupt slowdowns.
Instead, build scenario-based forecasts—best case, worst case, and most likely—layered with probabilities. This can be done in Excel if your planning software doesn’t support it. Scenario planning helps align decisions around goals like margin protection, service levels, or inventory risk, even if the future remains uncertain.
Know Your Customers and Suppliers—Deeply
Tariff-driven costs don’t impact only your business. Your customers are also adjusting. Stay in close contact to understand how they’re adapting. Are they passing cost increases to their customers? Are they shifting their category priorities?
At the same time, build strong lines of communication with suppliers. Understand their exposure to tariffs, production capabilities, and capacity to adapt. Some may be looking to relocate or diversify their manufacturing bases. If you’re well-informed and collaborative, you’ll be in a better position to secure capacity and favorable terms.
Be a Resource Across the Organization
Inventory Planners have a unique cross-functional view. Use it. Share your insights to help other departments make more informed decisions:
- Finance: Help forecast the cash flow impact of changing landed costs and delayed deliveries.
- Marketing: Collaborate on promotions to move inventory affected by tariff surges or cost increases.
- Product Development: Suggest cost-effective alternatives that align with shifting material or sourcing realities.
- Production: Coordinate closely on what SKUs to prioritize, especially if components or materials are now more expensive or delayed.
Invest in Yourself
With the pace of change accelerating, ongoing learning is essential. Whether it’s through webinars, trade publications, or online courses, invest time in understanding international trade, sourcing strategies, and supply chain resilience. The more you know, the better equipped you’ll be to lead through the unknown.
Final Thoughts
Tariffs and trade tensions are testing global supply chains in new ways. But with the right mindset and planning approach, Inventory Planners can help their organizations not just survive—but adapt and even thrive. By staying informed, building flexible plans, and collaborating across departments, you’ll become an indispensable part of your company’s response to uncertainty.
